This is a continuation of yesterday’s article. You can read the first part here.
A word about the experts…
Much was made by the Remain side about ‘people ignoring the experts’. The real problem has been the continued debasing and corruption of what should have been impartial advice for one sided political gain.
(a) Tampering with the experts – The Treasury Forecasts. Economic forecasts are never precise. They are always couched in terms of a band of predicted outcomes. For example the forecast might say ‘growth is likely to be between 2% and 3%’ or just ‘up to 3%’. The moment you see a precise number being quoted it is likely that this isn’t a legitimate economic forecast. George Osbourne’s £4,300 a year cost per household prediction is a classic. Business Secretary Sajid Jarvid happily admitted that the Treasury had been told to only consider the downsides and ignore possible upsides to leaving that was Vote Leave’s ‘job‘ apparently. Not that the Leave campaign was ever going to be given access to the Treasury to do the forecasting. The £4,300 a year figure was also based on deliberately mixed up GDP with household income and was based almost totally on immigration to the UK continuing at the current levels of 250,000 to 300,000 a year which it assumed would stop after Brexit. But, of course, if it wanted to the UK could still chose to continue this level of immigration even if it left the EU.
(b) Experts with their own agendas. There are a large number of organisations with their own special interests and ‘axes to grind’. For example, large multinational companies like large multinational regulatory bodies as they make it easier for them to make money. Democratic deficits and low wages aren’t really an issue for them. Their utterances will be predominately pro-EU. Similarly, time and time again, the BBC has shown itself to be biased towards the EU. Many insiders have said that the TV programme ‘W1A’ should be seen as a documentary not a comedy! The whole BBC culture is pro-EU and this flows through their entire organisation. It doesn’t matter how much you tell them that the ‘Pasty Tax’ was George Osborne falling foul of EU directives (not that he just doesn’t like pasties) they just don’t get it. Listen to the Radio 4 ‘More or less’ broadcast on the EU Cabbage ‘Myth’ (the first nine minutes) and then compare that with the actual situation detailed in yesterday’s article.
(c) Compromised Experts – Sock Puppets. Organisations that accept funding from a second organisation don’t tend to denigrate that second organisation. It’s called ‘biting the hand that feeds’. So whenever an NGO or think tank pops up and provides support for the EU it is always worth asking if they are also funded by the EU. The EU provides 2 billion Euros a year to these types of organisations and you will be amazed at who gets it. Examples include: CBI, Universities UK, Friends of the Earth, ActionAid, Oxfam, Oxford Economics (the group that claimed during the referendum campaign that leaving the EU would damage the NHS) and of course the BBC!
Ultimately membership of the EU is like being on a runaway train that you know is going to crash. Getting off could be painful but not nearly as dangerous as staying on the train. Again a lot of the estimates that we are being given about the cost of ‘leaving the EU’ are (deliberately) confusing the cost of that change with what could be the eventual cost (or benefit) of being outside the EU.
Leaving the EU was always going to cause uncertainly for a year or two. For the long term the choice is this …
(a) Would you rather be the fifth largest economy in the world with your own democratic government in control of your own destiny and boarders?
(b) Would you rather be a part of an unstable political project, that is un-democratic, stiflingly over regulated, economically challenged with increasing civic discontent and that is still driving for ‘Ever closer Union’?
Leaving the EU is better for the UK in the long term. It will probably help the rest of Europe as well as it may force the EU to reform itself into a pan-national body that is more appropriate for the modern world.
If you would like more information then this MEP’s FAQ is a good point to start:
(Michael Wigley was the Vote Leave co-ordinator for Romsey and Southampton North. He has stood for the Referendum Party and UKIP for Romsey and Southampton North in Parliamentary elections and UKIP for the European Parliament). firstname.lastname@example.org