Napoleon once said ‘Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake’. You may feel the Scots are making a mistake with independence, but one cannot deny it benefits the Eurosceptic right to let them make it.
One of the most ironic features of the Scottish ‘independence’ debate is that it revolves almost exclusively around ‘dependence’ of the state. Both the SNP and Labour are parties of big government welfare dependence. The only debate they have is whether Scotland’s sugar-daddy socialist welfare state can be maintained if they leave the UK or not. If you think it can, and Scotland doesn’t necessarily need English subsidies, you vote SNP. If you think it can’t afford it without English subsidies, you vote Labour.
Indeed, virtually every point in the independence debates was ultimately something to do with welfare. The much debated point about how much oil is left in the North Sea was code for ‘can we fund our sugar daddy socialist welfare state with that oil (which means we can leave the UK) or do we need some English tax money on top of that oil revenue (which means we stay in the UK)’. The SNP and Labour differ on this, hence their different stances in the debate. However, neither Labour nor the SNP have a problem in principle with dependence on the state for your income, nor do most voters north of the border. Let’s look at the electoral mathematics. There are 59 Scottish constituency seats at Westminster. Of these, 58 are held by left-wing Europhiles (SNP, Labour, Lib Dem). The Labour Party alone has 47 of these. In the Scottish Parliament, 112 of the 129 seats are held by big-government-Europhile-sugar-daddy-welfare-state parties. The political right is invisible in Scotland, bar a single Conservative MP and a single UKIP MEP.
It stuns me so many UKIP members and right-wingers in general can look at these numbers and still think Scotland remaining in the UK is a good idea. Why do you want your opponents bloc votes to stay? It would be like the Democrats in America offering to never again have California or New York’s electoral college votes count in Presidential elections, only for the Republicans to insist that they do. I have not heard a single argument in favour of keeping the Union that doesn’t’ involve sentimental nonsense like it would be ‘nice to keep the union together’. Sorry, but ‘nice’ isn’t the basis for sound policy, particularly when ‘nice’ means forcing English taxpayers to fund Scotland’s welfare state whilst simultaneously giving the Labour Party a decisive bloc vote at Westminster. This is the party of mass immigration and EU membership. If Scotland leaves the UK, politics in what is left of the UK would shift away from the parties of mass immigration, Europhilia and big government.
If Scotland left the UK, two things would happen. Firstly, we would no longer have to fund the Scots sugar-daddy-socialist-welfare-state. They would have to fund it themselves, and the rest of the UK could use the money it no longer spends on Scottish Labour voters on things like health, education, the armed forces or strengthening border controls instead. Secondly, we would break the back of the British left, possibly forever. No British party could ever hope to win a General Election if 50 plus of its seats are no longer in the mix. When the Tories won their history-making win in 1979, they only managed a net-gain of 62 seats. When one considers Red Ed trails the Tories by 49 seats at the moment, if he loses an additional 47 Scottish Labour seats, he would need to win a net-gain of 96 seats to win an election – and even then would need a coalition with someone else. Cameron won a similar net-gain of 97 seats in 2010, the third highest net gain in post-war election history, but even then he still needed the Liberal Democrats to form a government. The thought that never again will the Labour Party, the party of mass immigration and EU membership enter Number 10, is a once in history chance the right must welcome.
There is a final point one must consider. Supposing the overly-sentimental UKIP members got their way and Scotland did the ‘nice’ thing and stayed in the Union. Fast forward to the in or out referendum on the EU planned for 2017. There is something you need to know. Every MP gets an allowance to blanket their constituency with ‘information’, and you have probably received these ‘newsletters’ from your local MP. In the event of an in-out referendum on the EU, the 58 Scottish Europhile MPs would blitz their constituencies with leaflets urging them to vote to stay in. The debate might be close, but these 4 million Scottish votes could be the difference. How would UKIP members feel if they insisted on keeping hold of 4 million voters whose vote kept us in the EU? How ‘nice’ would that be?
Just bear that in mind. Even if you feel the Scots are making a mistake with independence, it benefits the Eurosceptic right to let them make it. As Napoleon once said ‘Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake’. Particularly if that mistake benefits you long term.
Photo by London Permaculture