Theresa May’s call for a Hard Brexit will not shoot UKIP’s fox, but it’ll be UKIP which shoots itself if reforms are not soon brought about.
Come May 4th, UKIP will be fighting to hold the 147 county council seats it won in 2013. Given the current dismal state of affairs within the Party; we are poised to lose the vast majority of our seats, which will threaten us from going forward.
Twenty-seven non-metropolitan county councils and seven unitary authorities in England will have all of their seats up for grabs, with the one-third of the seats on the Bristol unitary authority in contention.
The following predictions for UKIP are the following:
County Councils:
Buckinghamshire: 0 seats (–6)
Cambridgeshire: 1 seat (–11). UKIP will hold Ramsey, currently held by Peter Reeve.
Derbyshire: 0 seats – No Change.
Devon: 0 seats (–4)
Dorset: 0 seats (–1)
East Sussex: 0 seats (–7)
Essex: 4 seats. UKIP will hold its two seats in Laindon Park and Fryerns. One was picked up in 2013, and the other in a by-election in May of 2016. Labour previously held both positions. We will gain both seats in Pitsea from Labour.
We have lost two county council seats in Essex in by-elections in the past three years. Both of these losses were to the Tories. Net loss of 5 seats from the 2013 elections.
Gloucestershire: 0 seats (–3)
Hampshire: 0 seats (–10)
Hertfordshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Kent: 2 seats (Both in Ramsgate) (–15)
Lancashire: 0 seats. No Change.
Leicestershire: 0 seats (-2)
Lincolnshire: 5 seats (-11) Boston will be the epicentre of the UKIP victories.
Norfolk: 1 seat. (-14) UKIP will hold the Yarmouth Nelson & Southdown division.
North Yorkshire: 0 seats (-2)
Northamptonshire: 0 seats (-3)
Nottinghamshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Oxfordshire: 0 seats. No change.
Somerset: 0 seats (-3) All three seats will be picked up by the Liberal Democrats.
Staffordshire: 0 seats (-2) seats.
Suffolk: 1 seat (-8) UKIP will hold Brandon.
Surrey: 0 seats (-3)
Warwickshire: 0 seats. No Change.
West Sussex: 1 seat (-9) UKIP will hold Lancing.
Worcestershire: 0 seats (-4)
Unitary Authorities:
Bristol: 0 seats. No Change.
Cornwall: 0 seats (-6)
Durham: 0 seats. No Change.
Isle of Wight: 0 seats (-2)
Isle of Scilly: 0 seats. No Change.
Northumberland: 0 seats. No Change.
Shropshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Wiltshire. 0 seats (-1)
UKIP won 147 seats in the county council elections. This prediction leaves UKIP with 15 seats, which is a net loss of 132 from the 2013 elections.
I’ve made these predictions based on a few important factors.
One of these is the surge in support for the Liberal Democrats in the local by-elections since May 2016. Another is the abysmal UKIP by-election results since the EU referendum, but most importantly, the fact that most of the county council elections will be in Tory bastions. UKIP has not countered the Tories in Tory heartlands with a coherent message on the economy. For this reason alone, we deserve to suffer a humiliating defeat due to our failure to adopt a libertarian manifesto, which would be appealing throughout the South.
No, we will not challenge Labour in the North. Get a grip. The Tories are closing in on Labour up North due to the massive Conservative Party lead in North Yorkshire, Lancashire, and Cumbria. UKIP’s North Cumbria chairman realised this and defected on January 18th.
Why are UKIP MEPs FAILING to get the message across? One can only ponder why we even employ anyone in our so-called press office. Any MEP who fails to put out a video a week where they sit or stand in front of the camera and tell people what they did for the country over the past X number of days should be forced to resign, and should never be allowed to stand as a candidate for the Party again.
Every vote in the European Parliament from a UKIP MEP should have a message written on Facebook about what the vote was on, how they voted, and why. If it’s a session where 8237463928 votes are held over the course of 10 minutes, then they may have an explanation, to sum up, what occurred. In addition to this, a video in the European Parliament should be uploaded on Facebook to get the message across. Other political parties around the world do this to perfection, but those at the top of the Party do not. Given the amount of money they make a year, it truly is astounding that they fail to think outside the box. Additionally, all UKIP employees in the press office should have their contracts terminated.
On top of that, all AMs and MEPs should be required to tithe. These funds can then be directed to winnable council seats. Two AMs who refuse to tithe are David Kurten and Peter Whittle. David Who???
Branch chairmen who fail to stand candidates in local by-elections (excluding town councils) should be removed from their positions. It truly begs belief how many local by-elections in the past year have not had a UKIP candidate. If the Branch chairman is incapable of acquiring the 10 signatures to get a candidate on the ballot, then he’s clearly unqualified to lead the branch.
Is it possible to avert these predictions in the next hundred days? Only if UKIP spends all of its available resources in winnable council seats will catastrophe be avoided. Will my advice be heeded? Of course not.
After our defeat, Chairman Oakden should resign in disgrace on the morning of May 5th on live television. In his resignation speech, he should explain to the public that his former boss, Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, said that Oakden is a “political suicide bomber”, and that he “shouldn’t be in politics”. I couldn’t agree more.
Many council elections this year will be held in wards where UKIP triumphed four years ago in 2014 at the height of their popularity. This means that an exceptionally high number of UKIP Councillors are up for reelection with national UKIP support in the doldrums. Regrettably they are going to loose a lot of seats.
The sad part though is that it did not have to be that way. Council elections are fought on local issues and the biggest local issue now is the effect of over-development on green space and services such as the NHS and schools. This should be perfect fodder for UKIP. High net migration numbers are by far the main cause of the fast population growth that leads to these problems. Many UKIP Councillors know this and respond accordingly, but where is the national support? Why have the harmful effects of over-development not been a central policy in UKIP’s manifesto? Is it because many of UKIP’s sponsors have been property developers, and if so what should be done about that?
Well it doesn’t say much for the standard of English of the staff writers, as decimated only means reduced by a factor of ‘ten’ decimated must be the most incorrectly used word look up the derivation but I suppose its a living language ‘init’ ?
The county council elections aren’t going to be easy for UKIP whatever. Genuinely good hardworking councillors who have been constantly making connections with their constituents may in some cases hold onto their seats due to a personal vote bump that offsets the national swing against them in these areas.
In the fewer, more Labour-inclined areas, they should surely be aiming for some gains though?
And surely the results of the EU referendum, by now broken down by constituency / town / ward etc. in most places, can point them to where they will have a more captive (i.e. ‘Leave’) audience and should therefore be putting their resources to achieve this and punch above what national polls might suggest in these areas.
Not rocket Science if they’ve got 1/2 an organisation that works.
Surely one big reason why UKIP will lose so many seats in 2017 is because their captive audience is no longer in the shires where they were doing so well in May 2013 – and doubly so because Tories (the main contenders in these areas), and even Lib Dems, are polling significantly better now than in their nadir of 2013.
The only way forward is to be really daring. At the moment UKIP sounds like a mainstream party which is a tiny bit more radical but not enough to frighten the horses.
One of the things that happens in small parties is that anyone who points out glaring deficiencies is told not to be negative and rock the boat we’ve worked so hard to build. So nothing is done. Add on the natural temptation to be complacent after the referendum.
It can’t be often enough stated. UKIP can’t live on Brexit any more. It needs a new highly radical message – as Brexit once was.
Pick your choice.
Mine I say is obvious. Preserve our identity which will disappear as well as us on the basis of the current UKIP stance. Let the press scream. They did over Brexit much of them.
The current stance does not even prevent leftist attacks as no doubt hoped. Hate not Hope is doing the usual ‘racist’ name calling rubbish.
It may well be that Kippers would like to save our country but to do so means being too controversial to bear. Settle for a quiet life losing it then. Your choice.
You got it wrong in Gloucester because I am going to keep my Council post for the simple reason that I have been the best Councillor this area has ever had. People know that and they respect that. Best not to comment when you know nothing about this area!
Staff Writer, if you were at the September National Conference you would know who David Kurten is: a black teacher with a special interest in education who gave a good speech, and is probably our Education Spokesman now. As for MEPs, they do more than tithe, they are obliged to donate 12.5% of their EU income to UKIP. As London Assembly Members on what are likely to be much lower salaries than MEPS, why should Kurten and Whittle be required to tithe?
Is it really your role to predict electoral disaster for UKIP? Even if the outcome proves you right, how do you know that your negativity hasn’t demoralised the very people on whom we depend for gaining victories?
We don’t need Ukippers to try to demoralise us, we get enough of those attempts from the liblabcon conspirators who have ruled and ruined this country for the past century and more. Luckily, people who work for UKIP are not so easily put off, because it’s our Party or no party.
In one word UKIP is suffering a bad attack of CRONYISM.
It wont be fatal if we win Copeland or Stoke Central.
If we are not a close second in both we might start hearing the bells of Notre Dame.
Then rather than shrugging shoulders or wringing hands, CK, how about recognising reality (that we’re not going to beat the Tories) and devising policies which might actually win the support we need?
I know it’s hard for ex-Tories, but if you want a strong country with no mass immigration, that is what we have to do – and it doesn’t have to perjure our soul.
Why can’t you all see it?
I am not an ex tory. I have never been a party member and have tended to vote for mavericks rather than a particular political party.
My trenchant views on nationalism, zero immigration, and state aid for development of industry in rust belt towns has put me at odds with all parties. Ditto my desire to see a particular religion/ideology banned from our country by repatriation of all militants. Ban sharia law, ban religious education in schools but promote Christian heritage and values.
I am also a Unionist but not at any price and if Scotland wants poverty in Europe then so be it bye bye.
Prisons should be so grim that nobody in their right mind would want to go there but at the same time prison should be the last resort and most offenders should be given 2/3/4 chances to reform.
Homelessness for native people ( not me) should not exist. If a government cant eliminate homelessness and rank poverty in 5 years it is a failure.
Here in Wales is typical of what staff writer is on about. We have Mark Reckless and David Rowlands as AMs in my region. Joe Smyth who was top overall in GE and assembly for UKIP enquired about working for UKIP in the assembly. Both Reckless and Rowlands were both strongly against it? Even though he helped both of them get elected? They both haven’t been in touch with branches since being elected, no donations towards may local elections. They are both not interested at all. Should we?
Does anyone know when the Electoral Commission is due to announce the outcome of their investigation? I’ve tried to get information out of them but cannot.
If I were working for the Tories or even (Heaven forbid) for Labour I would be doing my best to have them deliver their verdict a day or two before the vote. If I were a betting man then my money would be on it being “guilty”. UKIP seems to be acting like a rabbit in the headlights over this; they should know what the verdict will be and be prepared but are they?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/uk-independence-party-subject-of-new-electoral-commission-investigation
Staff writer what is your name? You need to be taken to one side and have your bumps read we don’t need your negativity. You should be promoting the party not demeaning it.
Don’t shoot the messenger! Cronyism is failing UKIP as it has in the past. I’ve been sitting on the fence for a long time as a prospective member and will remain there until the issues are addressed.
“UKIP has not countered the Tories in Tory heartlands with a coherent message on the economy.” Well, where has UKIP countered ANY other party on, well … ANYTHING?
“No, we will not challenge Labour in the North.” Absolutely correct. How is UKIP to convert 10,000+ Labour majorities to UKIP victories with … WHAT? Paler versions of socialism?
“Why are UKIP MEPs FAILING to get the message across?” It’s not just MEPs, it’s the party as a whole, huddled in some little den in Devon, focussed on keeping jobs and salaries and not daring or interested in looking out of the window, not communicating with anyone, certainly not its own ordinary members.
And the “message”? What is this “message”? Does UKIP have one? If so, I’d certainly be interested in hearing it.
Yes TFT, a paler version of socialism, to use your term, tho it’s not the right one because real socialism goes a lot, lot further and there is no need to antagonise or ingratiate our opponents. It’s simply a touch of much-needed fairness and state initiative to start getting us out of the economic mire we’re in. Which woud win Stoke, Copeland and the GE if only we had the wit and imagination.
Before you denounce it in genertal terms, what exactly is wrong with that?
You’re right to be asking about the message. It needs to be attention-getting, radical, coherent, purposeful. It can be done.
I think staff writer is getting somewhat hysterical. It is inevitable that we will fall back in May for three reasons: 1. May’s honeymoon over Brexit. 2. In 2013 we were on a roll as Cameron still floundered pre Ref promise. 3. In the South the Lib Ds are inevitably going to pick up a lot of the Remainer protest vote.
We need to recognise that we are in Regroup mode, and remember just how dire things were only 2 months ago. Also that we are going into a process of our vote shifting from across the board to concentration in smaller areas of greater strength.
Hence we near nothing anymore about Copeland, and Stoke has become a vital touchstone.
As for the draconian threats to Branch Chairmen who don’t find candidates, to be replaced by one of the many queuing up to do the job… Do me a favour, get real. This party, more than any other, is mainly made up of keen amateurs, so called because they have no interest in being professional politicians, and this is obviously both a disaster at times, and a huge advantage at others. Money is one problem, but remember also the bad experiences we’ve had with any number of allegedly professional chancers.
I fail to see how a regime of video messages from MEPs is going to reverse any of the above. On the other hand focussing on kicking the s out of Labour at every juncture–PN’s foremost plan–is the best hope until such time as May screws up.
North West Regional Chairman…. jumped ship.
PS Massive Conservative lead? Big lump of lib dems up here too. Farron territory.
Ajax
Tory governments, and HM Treasury, have been failing for as long as I can remember. The faithful will still go on voting for them. We cannot leave it to chance.
I hope Paul’s ‘strategy’ is rather more than his address in Stoke. Brexit yes but Tories have in hand. Immigration yes but Tories have in hand. NHS and bedroom tax yes, but Labour already claimed.
Where’s the beef? Arron’s national investment bank? – that would be a start, but we need so much more.
I must agree, Q, that a National Investment Bank would be a great and easy headliner for Mr Nuttall to start with. You can’t get more National than that!
However, read Ajax’s comment and you may understand what is puzzling us all.
If Nuttall’s cunning plan really is to emulate the SNP, apart from Nationalism I have no idea what their policies are, and I don’t think the Scots have either.
I have no problem with being a Nationalist in the broadest sense of the word, but an English Nationalist? I cannot see that this is going to enthuse a majority of the U.K. I may be wrong, but I think people expect more than that of UKIP.
@Q – You have far more faith in the Tories than I do. They’ve had foreign mass immigration ‘in hand’ for 50 years (including 9 separate Tory governments in that time), & we’re swamped, & up to 1000 more arrive still every day at Heathrow legally for re-settlement, not to mention the illegals pouring across the channel in lorries, & being landed on the beaches of Kent in boats at night. May has done nothing about this in 6 years, & she won’t do anything in the next 6 – the government is officially planning for their on-going admission up to a population density in this country of 90 million within a generation.
The same goes for the eu, they got us into it, they kept us in it for 4 decades, & the majority of Tory MP’s backed Cameron in trying to keep us in it on June 23. Even if we technically leave, there are ways to bind us to the eu pending rejoining at a later date.
H.M. Treasury is at £2T in the red, we’ve had interest rates at 0% & printing £’s for 8 years now, this is new territory that you haven’t seen in your life-time, or any one else’s – it’s never happened before.
Nuttall’s speech laid out the principle of the strategy of attacking Labour, which sold the working classes & the Midlands, North & Wales out in the 1980s, those voters know that’s true. The situation there is ripe for a re-alignment for the first time in 80 years, to dismiss this political vision as you do so lightly isn’t serious.
Admittedly the policy cupboard is a little bare & has to be developed, which is why N. is convening policy seminars of the membership, & Banks I hear is working on a policy programme that is far more ambitious & radical than that which he detailed on Galloway’s show; & I accept doubts as to whether N. has the minerals intellectually & in terms of his personality for this immense political opportunity, but give him a chance, he’s the best man on the spot for the job.
Trump won in the USA, by attacking a stagnant corrupt Capitol Hill governing order (our’s in Westminster isn’t much better), & undertaking to execute a few key macro-strategic policies which caught the public’s imagination. There’s nothing stopping UKIP doing the same.
Ajax,
You seem to forget that Blair not only threw the door wide open in his quest for more Labour voters; he took it off its hinges and threw it away.
@JT – I draw no difference in the Liblabcon on this issue, because there is none, proportioning responsibility for bits of it is a fool’s game.
Ajax
All true but you miss my point. The evidence is that so many good local UKIP campaigns come up against the immovable wall of complacent Tory voters time and time again. Their prime motivation is keeping Labour out, nothing else matters.
I wish we could beat them, but after 2014 it was clear that we can’t. We have to be a bit cleverer than keep bashing our heads against the same wall.
Since the Tories are the status quo, it is my humble opinion that the way to challenge them is not to mount a full-scale frontal assault which is amounts to an attrition strategy that UKIP could ill-afford. The best way is indirectly via the decimation of Labour.
It is hoped therefore that if UKIP wins the timely by-election of Stoke-on-Trent Central, then this in turn will result in a domino-effect whereby the other Labour-held constituencies follow, i.e. topple in the other by-elections and the forthcoming general election expected in 2020.
The momentum is there but it also needs to be ‘activated’ and the impetus created to drive it forward. This by appealing to Labour voters of UKIP’s trustworthiness on bread-and-butter (economic) issues. Economic patriotism combined with political patriotism – themes which are consistent with Brexit and the concomittant slogans.
Again, so very true.
Win or lose at Stoke, we have to do so much more.
I really hope that the staff writer is correct in the analysis re challenging the Tories in the South rather than Labour in the North.
And therefore, I really hope the following observation is wrong and does not reflect the reality/ real world …..
1. The Tories in the South are not in the same position as Labour in the North. That is, the Tories are in disarray and therefore in danger of suffering the same fate as Labour in Scotland.
2. Strategy requires one to strike the enemy at its weakest link. The weakest link is Labour (and not the Tories). In other words, first deal with Labour and then only the Tories.
3. The fact that Theresa May is seen to be more popular than Labour amongst the working-class voters (according to some recent polls) can only lead to one conclusion — bearing in mind May’s statist and interventionist stance: UKIP is still too right-wing to enjoy wider and stronger acceptance amongst the working class communities.
Jason
A masterful analysis – positively Sun Tzu-ish, in fact.
I just wish anyone in the leadership / NEC would have a go and say you’re wrong.
Notice how all our detractors seem to be a bit scarce right now?! Come on Jonathan , Mick …anyone?
Yes, Quercus, I think military strategy could well be applied to political and electoral strategy too. Having said that, I admire all the activists up and down the country who pound the pavement and knock on doors during the campaigning period. They are doing the hard work, and a magnificent at that!
Very true Jason – I’m one of them – but their efforts could be so much more fruitful if we used our heads better.
We can but try.
Oh dear. You start with exactly the right analysis – not difficult – then totally lose it – insulting people by name and, then, surprise surprise, coming out with exactly the wrong prescription – we have to be more like the Tories!
This is just the sort of dissension and division we do not need. Tbe real debate should be about our democratisation, and above all how we are going to get working people on our side.
It is absoltely fundamental that we recognise the elememtary facts of politics. We are not going to beat the Tories. (I wish we could, but any chance of that had gone by 2014. They will carry on voting for monkeys to keep Labour out till doomsday). Going for the Labour vote isn’t just our best chance: it’s our only chance. Until we realise that, and devise policies accordingly, there is no hope.
Staff writer – I couldn’t agree more!
I don’t know the ins and outs of UKIP internal politics, owing to not having a local branch, but to my mind the failure, and I have kept asking, along with many others, where ARE our spokespeople – comes from the obstinate refusal to bring in John Rees-Evans-Evans to at least try to do what he stood for Leader promising, and that was to revolutionize our on-line presence.
I think it is probably too late now – people enthused by that idea have left the party.
But John has stayed loyal and I’m sure he would still give it a try – fat chance of it happening though.
Our Leaders seem to live in their own little complacent world – anyone criticizing is blocked or, like when many members wrote to ask that our Leader should at least discipline Carswell for dining with Gina Millar et al and making remarks there that were frankly disloyal to UKIP were not listened to – probably more left after that.
UKIP could have served our country when it was most needed – can it still do so – without radical reform of thought and deed I doubt it, sadly.
UKIP has come out of a bad 6 months due to Farage’s resignation & its chaotic aftermath. Nuttall has stabilized the ship, & is now setting about re-configuring the party into a domestic political force post-eu. Labour are vulnerable, as is the entire Liblabcon political order, & Nuttall has an ambitious strategy to close with & try to destroy it as the SNP did in Scotland.
With regard to the Tories May is way out of her league as Prime Minister & will fail, badly, regardless of the usual “honeymoon” coverage she’s currently receiving as a new Prime Minister from the useless Westminster village media. The Treasury is destroyed with debt, & the hour that this matters is approaching, & the government on watch when it happens will fall in consequence.
The Council elections will depend on the activist base at the local level, campaigning on local issues.
With regard to macro-policy development on issues like the economy, Nuttall has that in hand I believe, & people like Arron Banks have something radical cooking too in this regard that I hear is pretty interesting.
As for the fair-weather friends who’ve been jumping ship to the Tories over the last 6 months, they’ve served their purpose with UKIP in achieving Brexit, goodbye & good luck to them to them.
Really, Ajax, I hope you’re right, though I would love some facts to back up your assertions….the only one I agree with is that Nuttall is re-configuring what’s left of the Party.
The snippet I have seen today, Mr Nuttall pushing the English Parliament which goes down well with some commenters on Twitter but not with others. As you know I think it’s divisive and unnecessary as a lot of people want less Government not more, and it will be an added expense as well. How it will go down with UKIP supporters in Wales, most of whom dislike the Assembly, I can only wonder.
I also think it lays UKIP open to the charge of English Nationalism instead of our being a Party for our great U.K. But of course views of members were never sought, as far as I know.
Re-reading your comment, Ajax, I now understand all too clearly Mr Nuttall’s devotion to pushing an English Parliament.
It won’t work. Scottish Nationalism is totally different, and the Scots are becoming disillusioned with it even though they have historically and with good reason loathed the English for centuries.