Theresa May’s call for a Hard Brexit will not shoot UKIP’s fox, but it’ll be UKIP which shoots itself if reforms are not soon brought about.
Come May 4th, UKIP will be fighting to hold the 147 county council seats it won in 2013. Given the current dismal state of affairs within the Party; we are poised to lose the vast majority of our seats, which will threaten us from going forward.
Twenty-seven non-metropolitan county councils and seven unitary authorities in England will have all of their seats up for grabs, with the one-third of the seats on the Bristol unitary authority in contention.
The following predictions for UKIP are the following:
County Councils:
Buckinghamshire: 0 seats (–6)
Cambridgeshire: 1 seat (–11). UKIP will hold Ramsey, currently held by Peter Reeve.
Derbyshire: 0 seats – No Change.
Devon: 0 seats (–4)
Dorset: 0 seats (–1)
East Sussex: 0 seats (–7)
Essex: 4 seats. UKIP will hold its two seats in Laindon Park and Fryerns. One was picked up in 2013, and the other in a by-election in May of 2016. Labour previously held both positions. We will gain both seats in Pitsea from Labour.
We have lost two county council seats in Essex in by-elections in the past three years. Both of these losses were to the Tories. Net loss of 5 seats from the 2013 elections.
Gloucestershire: 0 seats (–3)
Hampshire: 0 seats (–10)
Hertfordshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Kent: 2 seats (Both in Ramsgate) (–15)
Lancashire: 0 seats. No Change.
Leicestershire: 0 seats (-2)
Lincolnshire: 5 seats (-11) Boston will be the epicentre of the UKIP victories.
Norfolk: 1 seat. (-14) UKIP will hold the Yarmouth Nelson & Southdown division.
North Yorkshire: 0 seats (-2)
Northamptonshire: 0 seats (-3)
Nottinghamshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Oxfordshire: 0 seats. No change.
Somerset: 0 seats (-3) All three seats will be picked up by the Liberal Democrats.
Staffordshire: 0 seats (-2) seats.
Suffolk: 1 seat (-8) UKIP will hold Brandon.
Surrey: 0 seats (-3)
Warwickshire: 0 seats. No Change.
West Sussex: 1 seat (-9) UKIP will hold Lancing.
Worcestershire: 0 seats (-4)
Unitary Authorities:
Bristol: 0 seats. No Change.
Cornwall: 0 seats (-6)
Durham: 0 seats. No Change.
Isle of Wight: 0 seats (-2)
Isle of Scilly: 0 seats. No Change.
Northumberland: 0 seats. No Change.
Shropshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Wiltshire. 0 seats (-1)
UKIP won 147 seats in the county council elections. This prediction leaves UKIP with 15 seats, which is a net loss of 132 from the 2013 elections.
I’ve made these predictions based on a few important factors.
One of these is the surge in support for the Liberal Democrats in the local by-elections since May 2016. Another is the abysmal UKIP by-election results since the EU referendum, but most importantly, the fact that most of the county council elections will be in Tory bastions. UKIP has not countered the Tories in Tory heartlands with a coherent message on the economy. For this reason alone, we deserve to suffer a humiliating defeat due to our failure to adopt a libertarian manifesto, which would be appealing throughout the South.
No, we will not challenge Labour in the North. Get a grip. The Tories are closing in on Labour up North due to the massive Conservative Party lead in North Yorkshire, Lancashire, and Cumbria. UKIP’s North Cumbria chairman realised this and defected on January 18th.
Why are UKIP MEPs FAILING to get the message across? One can only ponder why we even employ anyone in our so-called press office. Any MEP who fails to put out a video a week where they sit or stand in front of the camera and tell people what they did for the country over the past X number of days should be forced to resign, and should never be allowed to stand as a candidate for the Party again.
Every vote in the European Parliament from a UKIP MEP should have a message written on Facebook about what the vote was on, how they voted, and why. If it’s a session where 8237463928 votes are held over the course of 10 minutes, then they may have an explanation, to sum up, what occurred. In addition to this, a video in the European Parliament should be uploaded on Facebook to get the message across. Other political parties around the world do this to perfection, but those at the top of the Party do not. Given the amount of money they make a year, it truly is astounding that they fail to think outside the box. Additionally, all UKIP employees in the press office should have their contracts terminated.
On top of that, all AMs and MEPs should be required to tithe. These funds can then be directed to winnable council seats. Two AMs who refuse to tithe are David Kurten and Peter Whittle. David Who???
Branch chairmen who fail to stand candidates in local by-elections (excluding town councils) should be removed from their positions. It truly begs belief how many local by-elections in the past year have not had a UKIP candidate. If the Branch chairman is incapable of acquiring the 10 signatures to get a candidate on the ballot, then he’s clearly unqualified to lead the branch.
Is it possible to avert these predictions in the next hundred days? Only if UKIP spends all of its available resources in winnable council seats will catastrophe be avoided. Will my advice be heeded? Of course not.
After our defeat, Chairman Oakden should resign in disgrace on the morning of May 5th on live television. In his resignation speech, he should explain to the public that his former boss, Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, said that Oakden is a “political suicide bomber”, and that he “shouldn’t be in politics”. I couldn’t agree more.
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35 Comments on “Could UKIP be decimated in May?”
Well it doesn’t say much for the standard of English of the staff writers, as decimated only means reduced by a factor of ‘ten’ decimated must be the most incorrectly used word look up the derivation but I suppose its a living language ‘init’ ?
Surely one big reason why UKIP will lose so many seats in 2017 is because their captive audience is no longer in the shires where they were doing so well in May 2013 – and doubly so because Tories (the main contenders in these areas), and even Lib Dems, are polling significantly better now than in their nadir of 2013.
You got it wrong in Gloucester because I am going to keep my Council post for the simple reason that I have been the best Councillor this area has ever had. People know that and they respect that. Best not to comment when you know nothing about this area!
In one word UKIP is suffering a bad attack of CRONYISM.
It wont be fatal if we win Copeland or Stoke Central.
If we are not a close second in both we might start hearing the bells of Notre Dame.
Then rather than shrugging shoulders or wringing hands, CK, how about recognising reality (that we’re not going to beat the Tories) and devising policies which might actually win the support we need?
I know it’s hard for ex-Tories, but if you want a strong country with no mass immigration, that is what we have to do – and it doesn’t have to perjure our soul.
Why can’t you all see it?
Here in Wales is typical of what staff writer is on about. We have Mark Reckless and David Rowlands as AMs in my region. Joe Smyth who was top overall in GE and assembly for UKIP enquired about working for UKIP in the assembly. Both Reckless and Rowlands were both strongly against it? Even though he helped both of them get elected? They both haven’t been in touch with branches since being elected, no donations towards may local elections. They are both not interested at all. Should we?
Does anyone know when the Electoral Commission is due to announce the outcome of their investigation? I’ve tried to get information out of them but cannot.
If I were working for the Tories or even (Heaven forbid) for Labour I would be doing my best to have them deliver their verdict a day or two before the vote. If I were a betting man then my money would be on it being “guilty”. UKIP seems to be acting like a rabbit in the headlights over this; they should know what the verdict will be and be prepared but are they?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/uk-independence-party-subject-of-new-electoral-commission-investigation
Staff writer what is your name? You need to be taken to one side and have your bumps read we don’t need your negativity. You should be promoting the party not demeaning it.
Don’t shoot the messenger! Cronyism is failing UKIP as it has in the past. I’ve been sitting on the fence for a long time as a prospective member and will remain there until the issues are addressed.
North West Regional Chairman…. jumped ship.
PS Massive Conservative lead? Big lump of lib dems up here too. Farron territory.
Ajax
Tory governments, and HM Treasury, have been failing for as long as I can remember. The faithful will still go on voting for them. We cannot leave it to chance.
I hope Paul’s ‘strategy’ is rather more than his address in Stoke. Brexit yes but Tories have in hand. Immigration yes but Tories have in hand. NHS and bedroom tax yes, but Labour already claimed.
Where’s the beef? Arron’s national investment bank? – that would be a start, but we need so much more.
Ajax,
You seem to forget that Blair not only threw the door wide open in his quest for more Labour voters; he took it off its hinges and threw it away.
@JT – I draw no difference in the Liblabcon on this issue, because there is none, proportioning responsibility for bits of it is a fool’s game.
Ajax
All true but you miss my point. The evidence is that so many good local UKIP campaigns come up against the immovable wall of complacent Tory voters time and time again. Their prime motivation is keeping Labour out, nothing else matters.
I wish we could beat them, but after 2014 it was clear that we can’t. We have to be a bit cleverer than keep bashing our heads against the same wall.
Again, so very true.
Win or lose at Stoke, we have to do so much more.
Jason
A masterful analysis – positively Sun Tzu-ish, in fact.
I just wish anyone in the leadership / NEC would have a go and say you’re wrong.
Notice how all our detractors seem to be a bit scarce right now?! Come on Jonathan , Mick …anyone?
Yes, Quercus, I think military strategy could well be applied to political and electoral strategy too. Having said that, I admire all the activists up and down the country who pound the pavement and knock on doors during the campaigning period. They are doing the hard work, and a magnificent at that!
Very true Jason – I’m one of them – but their efforts could be so much more fruitful if we used our heads better.
We can but try.
Re-reading your comment, Ajax, I now understand all too clearly Mr Nuttall’s devotion to pushing an English Parliament.
It won’t work. Scottish Nationalism is totally different, and the Scots are becoming disillusioned with it even though they have historically and with good reason loathed the English for centuries.