Two years ago the people of Thurrock went to the polls to elect seventeen individuals to the Unitary Authority. Interestingly enough, UKIP was able to breakthrough and win the seat of Aveley, and took 18% of the vote overall throughout Thurrock, without even fielding a full slate.
What does this mean for 2014? First of all, if we were able to take 18% in 2012, we are sure to massively improve on this two years later, given that our nationwide support has doubled over this time according to Opinium Research, TNS-BMRB, Survation, and ComRes.
On top of this, we also don’t have to deal with the National Front on a scale that we did two years ago. Back then the NF fielded twelve candidates, whereas now they only have two, one of which being the infamous Mick Griffin (Not to be confused with the BNP’s, Nick Griffin). With the racist NF nearly completely out of the way, we won’t have some disenchanted voters casting a vote for them, and instead they’ll likely vote UKIP in the local elections. Furthermore, the BNP isn’t fielding a single candidate, which is a testimony to how much their support has collapsed since 2009, when they nearly beat the Labour Party in Thurrock for the EU election in the East of England.
One may ask, why is this of any importance? Who cares about Thurrock? Well if you’re a UKIP member, or even just a supporter, you definitely should care, given that this is one of our target seats for the 2015 General Election. Our candidate for the seat is Tim Aker, who is third on the list for the EU election out of the East of England, and currently serves as Head of UKIP’s Policy Unit. With such a stellar candidate as our PPC, it is instrumental that he has local councilors elected to the Unitary Authority that can not only improve the functions of the local council, but also show to the community that when you vote UKIP, you get UKIP.
We should also remember that we are increasingly taking votes that were previously going to the Labour Party. Given that the Thurrock Parliamentary seat was held by Labour from 1992- 2010, this will be advantageous, for our canvassers will be able to explain to former Labour voters that they don’t have to fear that a vote for UKIP will result in the Tories holding the seat, given that the Tories have a majority of less than a hundred votes. If those former Labour voters vote UKIP, they’ll get UKIP. As for those who typically vote Tory, if we tell them that its just about impossible for the Tories to hold the seat, and that the only way to stop Red Ed’s candidate from winning is to vote UKIP, then we shall make further inroads among conservatives as well.
We also have the benefit of knowing that the LibDems won’t hold onto their deposit in 2015 given that they couldn’t hold onto any of their deposits in the council elections two years ago, and that a fall of 6% is more than certain. This in turn makes a vote for the LibDem candidate a wasted vote.
As for the BNP, they might not even field a candidate given that they can’t even find one to contest any of the council seats, and the NF lacks both the funds and the competence to field one.
With the BNP and the NF out of the way, the LibDems imploding faster than the Hindenburg, and the Tories bound to loose their deposit, its definitely a two way race between UKIP and Labour, and if we take at least 30% of the vote in the local elections in Thurrock on Thursday, then the odds of Mr. Aker coming out victorious next May are very high indeed.
The political class says Farage is the only Kipper that can win a Westminster seat come 2015. The point is, they’re wrong.