As I write this on Sunday, we have all been heartened by the Survation poll that has included questions on the EU Referendum. While the papers will trumpet the 51% headline, there is some devil in the detail that UKIP activists should be aware of, and I shall give a summary of that.

If you want to browse the data tables yourself, they are here – Tables 1 to 7 are the normal “GE Voting Intention” questions, and Table 8 onward covers the Referendum.

For a start, the 51% figure has been derived purely from those who have made their minds up. Table 10 tells us that actually 40.4% want to remain in the EU, 42.6% want to leave and 17% are undecided, so there is still all to play for, winning their votes. Mind you, the “undecideds” may also include a large number of people who have little chance of voting.

When we come to Table 11, which is the table the papers are quoting from, we see the split is 51.3%/48.7% with the “undecideds” removed. The male/female split shows us a difference there, though:

Gender Male Female
Remain 46.9% 50.7%
Leave 53.1% 49.3%

The “Leave” campaigns need to look at how they better focus their message on the female vote then, perhaps to show that the “caring/sharing” UK is better at it than the supposed “caring/sharing” EU?

There is an age differential too, as shown in this table:

Age 18-34 35-54+ 55+
Remain 70.5% 45.8% 37.0%
Leave 29.5% 54.2% 63.0%

These differences are presumably explained by the memories of the over 55s of the last Referendum and how we were deceived, whereas the younger vote is doubtless influenced by the relentless propaganda coming forth from their schools, universities, BBC and the rest of the MSM. The “Leave” campaigns must show this generation the brighter picture for them outside the EU, an upbeat message of more trade with the world, more freedom to run our own country, and more opportunities for them at home rather than them considering emigration, as so many do.

There is also a breakdown by voting intention. Clearly, the UKIP element of the campaign will be reaching out to UKIP voters and sympathisers. We must remind ourselves, however, that if there were a General Election tomorrow, only 13.4% would vote for us (see Table 5). However, we all know from conversations with non-UKIP voters that an awful lot of people have sympathies in our direction, but feel we are not an established enough party (in the Westminster rather than Brussels sense) for us to win their vote.

This Referendum intent by voting intention holds few surprises:

Vote Con Lab LD UKIP
Remain 48.7% 62.7% 84.0% 4.5%
Leave 51.3% 37.3% 16.0% 95.5%

Thankfully, precious few people intend to vote Liberal Democrat (6%). It is the number of Labour voters intending to “Remain” that is worrying. Our branches in the North, particularly, must think how they can better present the upbeat opportunities for them of leaving (resurgence of industry, perhaps) to the Labour community. And, perhaps if Corbyn becomes Labour leader, and if he sides the “Leave” campaigns, bringing the Trade Unions along with him, then there will be the real key to the “Leave” campaigns reaching an unassailable position.

Finally, we’ll look at the Regional vote. Pretty coarse regions are used, but they do point up some areas of the country where some special attention will be required:

Region London Midlands North South England Scotland Wales
Remain 52.2% 44.2% 49.5% 47.1% 48.0% 51.0% 56.4%
Leave 47.8% 55.8% 50.5% 52.9% 52.0% 49.0% 43.6%

London is surprisingly close, given the very large immigrant population there, many from the EU. However, a key question there will be whether Cameron can swing it for them to have a vote in the Referendum. The North is the least likely to vote for leaving, probably influenced by the “Labour” factor noted in the previous section. The big surprises are Scotland and Wales. While not quite in favour of leaving, it shows that a lot of Scots are not convinced by the Fish family’s assertions of Scotland gaining independence from the UK and then throwing itself back in the EU.

THe largest surprise though is Wales, with by far the strongest regional support to “Remain”. Perhaps they are feeling that the EU Regional Support is benefitting them as a depressed region, but we could easily show the Welsh that a British government could do just as good a job of Regional development as the EU, without the EU taking its cut, and imposing its often ridiculous conditions on grants, all laced with large doses of propaganda.  Wales only makes up 5% of the UK, so their votes are not significant in the grander scale of things, but as Mr Tesco says, “Every little helps”.

I hope this article has given our activists across the country some food for thought as they approach the forthcoming Referendum campaign.