Well, the Comres poll at the weekend was a real eye opener, wasn’t it? (data tables here) They had two parallel polls, one without prompting for UKIP in the question, and one with prompting. What’s the difference, you ask? I’ll tell you – 5% – a big difference. It means that every poll that’s been held since UKIP has been a significant force in British politics has had false results for UKIP to the tune of 5% (with the consequent knock-back to the others, more for the Tories). That’s all the poll companies except for Survation, new kid on the block.
Mind you, their customers, who paid for the poll, the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror, chose to suppress this awkward little fact. The Sunday Mirror achieved this by not even mentioning the prompted poll, and quoting the unprompted poll – they went so far as to focus on another aspect of the poll, rather than voting intention. The Independent achieved it by not publishing it online, although I presume it made the print version.
If we look back to May this year, what it means is that the average of all UK polls really was 19% at that time, rather than bumping along just above 14%. After May, UKIP’s polling took a little dip to around 17%, but has now climbed back through 19% and up to 21%, with true adjusted results allowing for prompted polling. The Comres and Survation polls represent the higher end of the statistical variation, but many UKIPpers will say it better represents the situation on the ground.
However, when we look at Regional voting intentions, it is better than that. Yes, much better! Here are the numbers per Euro region, bar Northern Ireland, in descending order:
[table id=1 /]
Looking at the figures, it is difficult to see that the numbers average out to 24%, but I assure you they do, the very low numbers for London and Scotland dragging it down enormously.
I’m smiling a lot as I look at those numbers, too. I’m standing as PPC in Southend West, in Essex, in the Eastern Region. And, to be honest, that is where we will win a lot of our Westminster seats.
The South East looks good too. OK, in stockbroker territory we won’t do so well, but that leaves other parts of the South East which are strong: the Estuary constituencies, big towns like Portsmouth, Southampton and Eastleigh, plus the HS2 corridor.
And for all those regions that are above the average figure (all bar Wales and the North East), there are hotspots, places where UKIP support is strong, such as the Doncaster/Rotherham and Black Country areas.
Nigel said 2014 was going to be a political earthquake, and it was. Our leader hasn’t yet used a physical metaphor for the 2015 election, but I will go so far as to suggest a phrase:
A Political Hurricane
Photo by Ikhlasul Amal 
Look at Lincolnshire/Norfolk too. A huge number of close second places in 2013 and we’ve moved on since then. We have an excellent PPC too. Now if only I can find enough good quality council candidates, the sky’s the limit.
Very revealing. UKIP got 35% in the EU election in South Suffolk, and the 34% quoted above confirms that the nationally averaged lower polls do not show the true prospects.
As the PPC for South Suffolk, the 2010 Conservative 48% of the vote does not look so unassailable.
Impressive figures. I suspect we’ll be higher still, after the 20th November(fingers crossed).
It’s a certainty!
VOTE UKIP and you will GET UKIP!
Very clever.
A mail to the editor would have resulted in the same outcome as above with a minor edit, especially as your other Disqus posts indicate you are a UKIP supporter.
No not clever at all, just ordinary facts. But sorry I spoke, I shan’t anymore if you disapprove of any constructive criticism.
I could have just deleted your comment, instead I chose to give you my reaction to your “constructive” criticism, that was addressed by deleting just 3 characters from one word.
Technically accurate it may be, helpful it ain’t.
OK you have explained your reasons, and thank you for that. But you are basically saying that you only want supportive comments. For myself I shall desist any further comments on your articles, as it means I cannot be honest without risking upsetting you. I feel that Ukip either stands for openness and frankness, or it goes down the same “hush it up”, half truths and cover ups roads of the other parties. It’s a small point and I’ll leave it now. Good day to you.
One woman’s pedantry is another man’s accuracy I suppose.
Dear me, you are excited. Perhaps it passed you by, but the last two sentences of my original comment were tongue in cheek, poking fun, not at the author, but those who attacked Ukip. I was not being literal.
I suspect that you have taken it upon yourself to adopt a role that is essentially, “marking” commentators opinions, reactions, ways of thinking and styles of writing. Perhaps that comes naturally to you, or maybe it reflects something in your life. You are of course free to do that. Thank you for your comments which I have noted.