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The international situation

Elizabeth Jones, UKIP NEC member and UKIP Lambeth chairwoman, comments about the meeting of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It is the first personal meeting of the two leaders.

According to reports from Hamburg Russian president Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump discussed on Friday the situation in Ukraine and Syria, the fight against terrorism and cybersecurity. Generally it was a long conversation with lots of issues.

The issue of cybersecurity is a problem of neither party’s making. Trump must be seen to be patriotic about US election meddling which lies at much of the heart of this meeting. I am not convinced there was any damaging meddling – just an alleged hack of Democratic voters’ emails which  hardly compares to the alleged North Korean NHS IT hack in the UK. Russia has been warned not to meddle in the German elections and there is an assumption now that Russia has meddled in every major election! Putin favoured Le Pen in France and yet she failed to win. This is a diversion disrupting the good relationship between the two great superpowers.

Both have recently got involved in backing opposing participants in both the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts. Syria especially yields a kaleidoscope of actors – Turkey is anti-Kurd, USA supports the Kurds. Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are Shia and support the Assad Alawites – an offshoot of Shia faith. Qatar and Saudi Arabia give tacit support to Sunni Islamic State who are both age-old allies of US and UK. Thus no path can be steered without contradiction. Further, there is uncertainty in the Caucasus which is home to many Islamic State fighters, as many as in Raqqa, thus Russia has to have a sophisticated strategy of alliances.

Western Ukraine is more ethnically Ukrainian whereas Eastern Ukraine is more Moscow-oriented and coupled with appalling corruption and degradation of governance the issue will be hugely complex especially as Russia enjoyed very friendly docking rights in Crimea. It was unfair of the EU, NATO and the UK to pretend that a declaration of military action would be made to save Ukraine. This is not 1939 Poland and UK simply does not have the will or resources to engage.

In terms of the international dialog with Russia, the current conflict architecture does not work. Both knots need to be unravelled. Nothing can work whilst the current allegiances remain as they cause asymmetry and distort each other’s position. It needs to be revisited. Assad has ruled Syria with an iron fist quite successfully and we have seen how removal of the strong leader without a cast-iron replacement has failed. Why bother to remove Assad?

Trump did give a very misleading message by bombing Syria over an alleged chemical attack and no one really knows why he did it. Russia has a big stake in the Syrian conflict as a result of her recent military engagement and will be a leading peace broker.

Trump needs to get off his high horse over Assad. The world has been littered with harsh dictators since the dawn of time and a huge mess has been caused by trying to overthrow him to date.

Peace talks must start on the premise that there will be no regime change in Damascus. Peace first then democratic evolution may unfold. Give Assad and Russia peace of mind and enable Trump and Putin to talk freely because at the moment they are stuck in a Catch 22 with all actors around them in opposition. Redraw the negotiation map and an agreement will emerge in hours.

Trump’s speech to Poland warned Russia about aggression in Ukraine and of not toeing the line in Syria. It was a good idea of Trump to visit Poland first and reassure them over their long held anxieties over Russia, but again it gives a very confusing message in light of his election pledges against military adventurism.

The meeting was significant for sure. It built rapport and should lead to a redrafting of the geopolitical script otherwise conflict in these regions will be perpetuated forever. Thought must be given to where IS fighters will end up when Raqqa falls and they can no longer wave their black and white flag. They are likely to disperse, going underground, engaging in IED bombings and mass murder and decisive military action with Assad may be needed to lance that boil.

This meeting could lead to a Reagan/Gorbachev style renaissance between these two great nations.

The UK has consistently made the wrong call. We have belittled Trump on domestic US climate change issue whilst our own government urged its citizens to take up diesel engines now proven to be major polluters. We need to focus on getting the best Brexit deal and stop lecturing Trump, stop being cowed by our aggressive Far-Left and fix a state visit for him.

It is a splendid thing that we are not involved in these talks as I fear it would lead our more excitable politicos such as Boris Johnson to drag us into yet more absurd Blairite liberal interventionism. God knows how many civilians have died as a result. Further it subjugated other policies such as trade with the Commonwealth and caused us to hitch our wagon to the EU .

We need to look at ourselves and stop printing money for foreign aid, and beef up our military.

If only we could partake in a second golden age of Thatcher, Reagan and Gorbachev but alas we lack a Thatcher stalwart!

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About Elizabeth Jones (9 Articles)
Elizabeth is an NEC member, Chairman of the UKIP Lambeth branch and a 2016 leadership candidate. She has contested elections for UKIP at local, regional, parliamentary and European level since joining in 2010. She is a family solicitor of some twenty years standing.

14 Comments on The international situation

  1. Assad does need to be supported as the legitimate ruler of Syria; have they learned nothing from the removal of such leaders elsewhere?

    The followers of Islam can only be ruled by the iron fist.

  2. Elizabeth a great article, with lots of detail. At least I now know why I’ve been confused about this. The situation is confusing!

    I can’t help thinking Putin is in a difficult situation having to try to establish constructive relations with a range of countries all with different interests. I’m hoping Trump has a mind to get Putin on the same side as the West which I think Putin is inclined towards and further away from the influence of China and the EU.

    Of course, there are many in the West on the left that seem to be inclined toward China as the last remaining socialist (Marxist) super-power.

    I think this is what has been driving the ‘it’s the Russians’ propaganda campaign which I believe is aimed at stopping the US and Russia getting closer together politically. Of course, it also provides a smokescreen designed to keep the general public thinking of Russia as the USSR, as THE threat, while totally ignoring the Chinese elephant in the room.

    Of course, the Russian bear is not a teddy. Wanting them with us against China is one thing. Wanting them up close and personal is something entirely different! Tricky, to say the least.

  3. just to refresh the air.

    for those who are dreaming about “alliance with Russia against islamic global ambitions”, etc.

    yes I understand that RT propaganda has created an image of Russia as Great White Christian Conservative Power – it is true to the degree, but one should be aware what else is there.

    first, google “Chechnya” and “Kadyrov”. you will fast realize that this is an analog of Anjem Choudry given an Islamic fiefdom on a plate, the right to govern by Sharia and terror, right for 20K armed forces and impunity to project criminal and theocratic power in the rest of country – in exchange for useful services like political assasinations of oppositoin leaders and suppressing protests.

    second – you will definitely lose votes of all and every person in the UK who is originated from, or related to the major countries of the former USSR/Warsaw pact or bordering Russia – and that means Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Balitic states, Sweden, Finland, Georgia, etc.
    neighbouring the neo-imperial, aggressive, nihilist nuclear bully that is Putin’s Russia is nightmare for these countries and peoples.

    Putin and his close circle represent ar mix of mafia and gestapo-style secret services ruling elites practicing systemic corruption and savage traditionalism internally, and expansionist ruthless ultra-nationalist imperialism in foreign affairs.
    only in Ukraine this “ally” is responsible for 10000+ deaths in engineered “hybrid conflict” (de-facto annexation/occupation project that turned very bloody), – among these casualties are about 1000 civilians, including many children.
    Ukrainian army loses at average soldier or two every day presently, only to hold a frontline.

    don’t even think about bringing this stuff to influence Britain as “ally” or in any other form.

    this is much more dangerous to the West than Saudi Arabia and ISIS put together.

    • Saudi Arabia is far worse; Turkey is abandoning western style democracy and both are centres of gravity for anti western ideology and corruption.
      By contrast no matter how bad you paint modern Russia ( and I agree with a lot you write) it is still better than it was under the USSR and its authentic Orthodox Christianity is a force for good.
      Chechnya is a complex part of the puzzle and there is neither time nor space here. Originally it was sufi liberal islam that dominated there before Stalin’s mass murders ( The Vyna). Eastern Ukraine is maj ethnic Russian and once again we have to be realistic and not ignore the 80yr tragic history of marxist communism.

      • three essential misunderstandings.

        first, religion is never force for good.
        by definition.
        forces for good are humanity and reason, not half baked, systematically hijacked, ignorance-promoting surrogates.

        second, presently Orthodox Christianity in Russia (traditionally linked to repressive security apparatus) is, internally, an object of fierce ridicule and, frankly, hate. not by all but by many.
        BTW there is strong culture of political satire in Russia (check out youtube clips, e.g. “Leningrad”), I must say as Russian speaking, – there is nothing comparable here in the West, by wit, talent and social span.

        third, it isn’t that easy to define who is “ethnic Russian”. Strict geneteic criteria will probably provide for 40 to 60% “ethnic Russians” in Russia per se.
        in Ukraine, the situation is similar, albeit overal % of ethnic Russians is lower.
        Language is not criterion either.
        Large (most) part of Ukrainian army is Russian speaking.
        Some part of Russian forces invading/occupying Ukraine(aka “green men”) were actually Buryats (Mongol tribe), Chechens and other similar people from continental Russia/Caucasus. Imperial force not ethnic.
        the essence of conflict is civilizational not ethnic.
        basically Ukrainian citizen resist neo-colonial bullying that deprives them of choice and forces to accept decisions and cultural templates from authoritarian, archaic, unelected “new aristocracy” high caste that usurped power in Russia and “knows better” what suits “little slavic brother”. in the end, – as Russian fasciss reckon, – if we have Turks and Mongols on our side, why can’t we subdue Ukrainians?
        it isn’t still given, but quite likely that Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity, – essentially anti-colonial resistance – will eventually succeed. Russia becomes more isolated and unstable, whereas Ukraine gains more support internationally.

        so Britain would better choose right side. BTW Russia applies bulyying tactic against Britain as well, with all that naval and air force incursions and provocations. Putin many times mentioned “revenge for Sebastopol”, and that is his dream to defeat Britain militarily, so keep that in mind too..

        • What is your definition of a religion?
          What country without a religion produced advances in civilisation?
          Your definition of ethnic Russian is tortuous.
          It is not Leningrad you marxist it is St Petersburg.
          What evidence do you have for such widespread contempt of the Orthodox tradition (cultural as well as religious)
          I can only assume you are a left wing israelite.

          • you ran out of arguments so you try to discredit an opponent.
            by that, strangely enough, the one who rejects religion becomes an “israelite”, meaning that being Jewish is something definitely negative. like being blasphemer or gay.
            so, you are, like, Muslim, then?
            everything matches. 🙂

            my advise was to look for clips from “Leningrad” music band on youtube, to ensure that Russians are far ahead of the West in the art of political/social satire.

            religion is a set of beliefs
            1. essentially involving imaginary entities/phenomena, 2. conflated with a compulsory codes of conduct, and
            3. supported and exemplified by tribal mythology.
            are you satisfied?

            what do you mean by “left wing”?
            give a definition.

            Orthodox church in Russia is simply a department of FSB(KGB), and I repeat it isn’t my contempt, it is of Russian people themselves, who at least minimally educated.

            your question
            “What country without a religion produced advances in civilisation?” is ill-posed.
            religions are components of civilizations.
            obsolete, discredited, and dying-out components.
            that is how it all brought to us by anthropic evolution and its recent documented layer, the mythology, history, and science.

          • AY is a liar when he speaks of the Orthodox Church and is effectively a troll. His poor English indicates he works for a foreign government ( who else would be interested to post his rambling rants on this website?). I hate to say it but his anti Russian rants are empowered by racism and like all true racists he uses racism in his defence thus the myth of russians = mongols.
            If you are reading this AY I consider the greatest tragedy of the 20thC the Russian Revolution and inparticular the ensuing Holodomyr in which 7 million Christian Ukrainians died/were murdered in the artificial famine.

  4. Toby MicklethwaitToby Micklethwait // July 16, 2017 at 4:32 pm // Reply

    Dear Elizabeth (Jones),

    Thank you for posting your thoughts on this website.

    Regards, Toby, 01932-873557

  5. RUSSIA IS OUR FRIEND TURKEY IS OUR ENEMY
    We should begin fracking in ernest so that we can turn round to Saudi Arabia and say “no deal” we dont want your oil and we dont want your influence meddling in our affairs.
    As a matter of urgency we ought to build a WASP alliance of broadly speaking the white anglophone democracies of UK/Eire/USA/Oz/NZ/Canada with tacit support from Norge/Iceland/Hungary/India/Poland etc in order to sustain our economy in the trade buffeting that is about to occur.
    We should be playing super hardball with EU countries that are net recipients of €uros as opposed to the small number of net payers (Germany et al)..eg to Portugal we will buy from you tariff free all the wine/grapes/tshirts/fruit/etc you want to sell us but in return we expect no/little tariffs on our manufactured goods/pharmaceuticals etc. they are in no situation to object eg to Lithuania be our friend and we will allow the xxthousands of emigrant workers in the UK but if you do not co-operate with our BREXIT on good terms then bye bye to all that.
    Watch the REBEL MEDIA videos on the plight of the Iraqi and Syrian Christians and weep tears and gnash teeth in anger at the zero help offered by the EU for their physical survival.
    Of course all too many in UKIP show no interest in this critical subject. Assad protects the Christian minority and that is good enough for me to support him and Russia.
    Our MSM is evil in its refusal to tell the truth by both omission and commission.

  6. A very good article, Liz, you accurately describe my own feelings both about the USA’s mixed foreign policy messages (the only thing I have against Trump – his Polish speech was fantastic!) and also the lunatic ramblings of Boris Johnson which are, quite frankly, embarrassing. Time Syria stopped being used as a Globalist pawn – the people have suffered enough, more than enough in fact.

  7. Certain politicians in the USA and the UK seem to long for the old enmities between Russia and the West, the days before the Berlin Wall came down and the USSR broke up. This is ridiculous when the main threat to the West is not Russia anymore, but the global resurgence of islam and the huge populations of muslims in democratic countries, far too many of them plotting to destroy those democracies.
    Putin is the one of the few national leaders I have heard laying it on the line for muslims that if they want to live in his country, they will live by its laws and never think of replacing the Russian culture or political system with their own.
    We should form an alliance with Russia against islamic global ambitions.

    • Panmelia,

      Absolutely agree with every word you say, and I think you will find Trump thinks along the same lines, that is what is driving the leftards insane.

      • Spot on! For years now, the propaganda puppets of Hollywood have brainwashed so many people into automatically assuming that Russia are the ‘bad guys’, so it is only natural that the MSM only have to mention ‘Russia’ to implicate them in any matter, that the brainwashed hordes react in the way they do.

        The narrative is falling apart though, when it comes to the Middle East, and Syria in particular, because we have the ‘West’ (ie USA), Russia, and ISIS (or IS or whatever they’re being called these days). Who are the good guys, and who are the bad guys? The Russians must be the bad guys, but they’re fighting IS, who are also the bad guys. But Russia are also backing Assad, he’s a ‘bad guy’, so Russia must be the bad guys?

        If anyone hasn’t seen them yet, look up Adam Curtis on BBC iPlayer, his two documentaries Bitter Lake and Hypernormalisation are essential viewing, if you want to try and make any sense of what has been going on in the Middle East for the last forty-odd years.

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