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Latest Euro Election Projections

YouGov published a Euro Election poll over the weekend where they broke the results down by area of the country. These areas did not correspond exactly with the regions, they were coarser, but the results can be used to attempt to predict the number of MEPs that may be returned in each region.

I have a workbook which calculates the distribution of seats based on the d’Hondt system used in the European Elections. The results of my analysis of the YouGov poll is shown below – the regions are grouped by the areas that YouGov used, the outline results of their poll more conveniently reviewed on the UK General Election 2015 Site. Hence, the predicted percentages for some regions will be identical – clearly, the actual results will vary more between regions, but it’s the best data we have at present.

Euro Elections Projection

 

What conclusions can be drawn from this? For a start, it will be a close run thing in SW England and SE England where Conservatives and Labour are polling the same on 22%. They each could get 1 or 2 seats, depending on which one pushes slightly ahead of the other, and in SW England that outcome may affect whether UKIP gets 2 or 3 seats. Will Gawain Towler get a MEP job in Brussels or not?

The result in NW England is close between us and the Greens for the last of the 8 seats. With the Greens on 9% they get an MEP, and UKIP gets 3. However, if UKIP does slightly better, or the Greens slightly worse, Shneur Odze gets a job in Brussels, as well as Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours and Steven Woolfe.

The UKIP poll for the North of England, 35%, equalling the South of England, the two most pro-UKIP regions, shows that UKIP’s strategy of working hard to win over the Labour voter in the north is working, where UKIP is ahead of Labour on 33%.

The Liberal Democrats will get slaughtered, of course. They presently have 12 MEPs, and will be reduced to 4 – so much for Nick Clegg’s committing his party to the EU. The Greens will be probably will maintain their 2 MEPs, whilst the SNP will maintain their 2.

History tells us that our poll ratings climb as the election approaches, and there is some evidence that UKIP voters are more likely to vote in low turnout polls. At the moment UKIP is in the lead (based on the poll) with at least 27 MEPs, but it could go higher. Watch this space.

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Brian Otridge
About Brian Otridge (140 Articles)
Brian Otridge was Editor-in-Chief of UKIP Daily for 2 years till March 2016. He has been an aircraft engineer, currently works in the IT Industry and also enjoys writing on a wide variety of subjects. He was the UKIP Parliamentary Candidate for Southend West in Essex in 2015, but now lives in Lancashire

5 Comments on Latest Euro Election Projections

  1. First legalisation of drugs, now gay marriage… Farage is increasingly sounding like Cameron !

    • @luis P

      Since when did Cameron want to legalise drugs?
      Farage has always said his only issue with gay marriage was that the EU would force our churches to conform and (more importantly) nobody was asking Cameron to do this, it was purely a political-stunt to make him seem “liberal”/left-wing to gain more voters.

      “UKIP’s objection to same sex marriage was two-fold. First, we did not think it should have been made a political priority at a time of many other pressing issues and pointed out that the measure had no mandate from the electorate.

      “Secondly we were concerned that because of the role of the European Court of Human Rights in British law that faith communities which had strong objections were at risk of being forced to conduct gay marriages.”

      Now that Cameron has forced this through (without asking the electorate and without it being mentioned in the CON manifesto either) UKIP are hardly going to try and reverse it. So, it’s a non-issue now.

  2. It’s taken the EU some 40 odd years to seize control of our country, slowly, quietly,often secretly. UKIP may have been going for 20 but as a viable party, they have risen to the present heights in less than 2, with little money, less staff and in an environment as hostile as the far side of the moon. All achieved by the hard work of a charismatic leader and a lot of effort by amateur activists in their branches. That’s astounding progress, unique in politics and the establishment’s only answer is to spin, lie and smear. No honest attempt to address the issues whatever.
    If they can do so much with so little, I want to see them in government.

  3. Apologies should read ‘relatively’

  4. Great news for UKIP in Scotland. This latest poll confirms our belief that we are going to have at least one MEP
    Elected. Don’t forget UKIP has only been established in Scotland for 13 years and the steady progress we have
    made despite a hostile media and political establishment in general is a tribute to the handwork by the relativity
    Small number of dedicated activists.

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