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Labour Seats for the Taking

The forthcoming general election will be quite unlike any that has taken place in my lifetime.  Normal election calculations must be jettisoned, and a new strategy adopted. UKIP has a great opportunity to win seats, particularly from Labour, however this must be regarded as a fortuitous side effect of the campaign, rather than the central core of the campaign purpose.

The Prime Minister is a remarkably astute person, she knows that UKIP cannot reasonably campaign against any sitting Conservative MP (with the possible exception of Ken Clarke assuming he stands again).  She knows this, because this is for all intents and purposes a second referendum.  Those strategists within UKIP need to rapidly appreciate this reality, and respond to it logically.  In any case there are only a few active campaigners per branch, and it normally takes quite a few months to leaflet a constituency.  There is simply not the manpower to campaign in every constituency in the few weeks available.  Get real please!

In normal circumstances I would not suggest UKIP co-operating with the Conservatives, however these are not normal times.  The primary task of UKIP must be to ensure we have as smooth a transition to Brexit as possible, and that our negotiators have the strongest hand at the negotiating table.  The Prime Minister needs our support in this task at this time. For me patriotism and doing the right thing for the British people comes before any party loyalties.

The Lib Dems think they are in with a chance of regaining a number of seats, and probably they are correct, based on conventional thinking.  However in those seats which are finely balanced between them and the Conservatives it makes sense for UKIP not to stand a candidate, for doing so would risk splitting the Brexit vote and letting the Lib Dem in. They are the arch-remainers and must be blocked in whatever way it takes.  It is a no-brainer really.

There are constituencies where it makes sense for UKIP activists to actively assist the Conservative candidate with their campaign.  For strictly this general election only, the rules preventing UKIP members from campaigning for other parties should be lifted.  With the proviso of course that the candidate being supported is in favour of Brexit, or is at lest supportive of the Prime Minister even if they originally campaigned on the Remain side. The Conservative manifesto 2015 clearly states that the Conservatives will honour the referendum results, whichever way it goes.

As described above, the way to deal with the Conservatives and with the Lib Dems is quite clear cut.  How to deal with Labour is not so straightforward.  It is worth repeating that this General Election is de facto a second referendum.

Clearly any Labour MP who was a member of Labour Leave must not be opposed, and indeed assistance given if asked for with their campaigning on the ground.  As an aside, I and several UKIP members delivered thousands of Labour Leave leaflets during the referendum campaign into the Labour supporting areas. Of course delivered separately from other types of leaflets.  They were well written and seemed to be effective. It would be a betrayal of Brexit for UKIP to stand candidates against Labour Leave MPs.

UKIP can really put the frighteners on the rest of the Labour MPs. Especially those in Brexit areas. It is a real shame that UKIP did not win Stoke. If it had been won then there would be even more leverage.  I think Stoke should have been won, however knocking on doors there I was immediately confronted with the issue of Hillsborough. It would take several minutes to get past that barrier if indeed it was possible, before asking how they voted in the referendum.  Once they confirmed that they voted to leave, it was then straightforward to gain their vote.  A different candidate with less baggage could have won I believe.

My suggestion is that UKIP examines carefully the speeches and voting records of every Labour MP, to see whether they are accepting of Brexit or not.  If they are accepting then ask them to confirm it, and then don’t stand a candidate against them. Those who are still remainers need to feel the focused force of UKIP campaigning against them!

Traditional Labour voters are decent people, who want fairness and honesty in society.  Remember Mrs Gillian Duffy and her perfectly reasonable questioning of Gordon Brown regarding immigration.  She resigned from Labour as she cannot support Corbyn.

It is not just immigration itself, it is also the massive cultural changes which are impacting traditional Labour voters, caused largely by the Labour Party itself.  Labour introduced Sharia Councils in 2008.  Sharia is anti-democratic and UKIP really must oppose it.  Voters are fed up with this sort of thing, and they will abandon Labour because of it.  By now I am sounding like a stuck record I know, however UKIP has to also oppose non-stun religious abattoirs.  It makes no logical sense to oppose Sharia but to be in favour of Halal.  Oppose both or accept both, not a mixture, that really has no credibility and does not work. (See here)

It may be that an electoral pact can be made with the Conservatives.  In any case, with it or without it there is the chance for UKIP to win quite a few seats from Labour. However this is only achievable in my opinion if UKIP campaigns on the basis of returning our own sovereignty from Brussels, so that we can build a decent, just society for all, with one law for everybody and everybody subject to the same law.  Without exceptions for this or that religious group to practice their barbaric treatment of animals for example.  If UKIP can be seen as a party of consistent decent values then it will readily win votes in traditional Labour areas.

In summary:

  • This is not a normal election, normal campaigning concepts do not apply.
  • For this election only, the rules preventing campaigning for other parties need to be suspended, with the proviso that the candidate supports Brexit.
  • The incumbent Conservative MPs should not be opposed.
  • Lib Dems should be opposed in every case, either directly if there is a realistic chance of beating them, or else indirectly by assisting the Conservative candidate.
  • Labour Leave MPs must not be opposed, but given assistance if they want it.
  • UKIP must immediately return to its humane policy.  It makes no logical sense to be anti-Sharia but pro-Halal.
  • Labour seats will be won.  As a result of doing the right thing, having decent policies, and behaving rationally and honestly.  Chasing after this or that special interest group as happened in Stoke was a disaster for the party, and the error must not be repeated.
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47 Comments on Labour Seats for the Taking

  1. In Yorkshire there are 14 seats where we came second to Labour

    Rother Valley
    Sheffield South East
    Normanton Pontefract Castleford
    Barnsley East
    Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
    Sheffield Heeley
    Wentworth and Dearne
    Barnsley Central
    Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle
    Kingston upon Hull North
    Doncaster North
    Kingston upon Hull East
    Doncaster Central

    Why not select the 5 best prospects and concentrate on those?
    This exercise should be carried out for every region and the NEC should only authorise a maximum of 60 target seats to be properly contested.
    Also, consider that if we don’t stand in Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg might be beaten. We could easily remove the Lib Dems from Yorkshire completely, in fact. By concentrating resource i.e. doing less we can achieve a lot more. NEC are you listening?

  2. Hugo
    There have been numerous articles re what is the purpose of UKIP now the EU referendum has been won. The answer is what this nation has always needed – that is a party that represents all the people – the middle classes & working classes & those who really struggling. This is achievable. This is what UKIP needs to discuss. Such a party would do major damage to the other 2 main parties.
    2015 election Tories 36.9%, Labour 30.4%, UKIP 12.6%
    UKIP are now the clear 3rd party and with sensible policies the UKIP share should keep rising.
    My feeling is with the right policies UKIP can take 5% plus from each of the 2 main parties and turn the 2020/2022 election into a 3 party battleground with the leading parties each polling between 20% and 30%. With UKIP gaining an outright win in the subsequent election sometime in 2023/2027 say. It all depends on the policies. I have many ideas and it is clear to me there are many intelligent people with much to contribute.
    UKIP now has credibility with the electorate. The voters are familiar with UKIP. By the 2020/2022 UKIP can be a credible party for government – in the eyes of the voters – if we have the right policies. Our main task for the rest of 2017 is have a prolonged period of strong frank debate and discussion as to UKIP’s policies. And it is essential to have the fullest involvement of the grassroots in this debate. To succeed UKIP needs to be a bottom up democratic party where the entire party decides on the policy and the leadership represent this policy.
    I consider an outright win is achievable within 2 elections.

    • Maximus, I admire your optimism and your energy.
      UKIP needs to find a purpose now. Beyond Brexit. And not just trying to get elected for the sake of getting elected, as cynically the other parties do.

      UKIP must give itself the serious task of saving Britain. In my opinion it has zero credibility for that task while it is pro-Halal. And while it panders to the Muslim vote as happened in Stoke, behind the backs of decent members campaigning there who had no idea that this stupidity was going on.

      From what I have found so far, the anti-British infiltration of UKIP began in around 2010. Yes, we did manage to force Cameron to promise a referendum, and yes we did play our part in winning it, but for what?

      If we do win back our sovereignty from Brussels, only to hand it over to 7th century religious fanatics, then what really has been achieved?

      If UKIP fails to step up to the challenge right now – before May 4th, then UKIP will do badly in those elections, and do even worse at the general election, and be back at 3% core vote.

      How up to speed are you with Islam? Watch this as a good introduction to the key concepts:

      • Hugo
        The Brexit referendum & Trump elections made a big impact on me.
        Realising that the anti-establishment positions can win in these major election events.
        Made me think that maybe the ruling class can be removed via the ballot box.
        Also the possibilities that the ruling class are not acting in the best interests of their nations, are not patriots, and that the media are deliberately covering up what is going on. This is totally unacceptable.
        I am not at all up to speed on Islam. What I have read on here has shaken me to the core.
        Thanks for the utube link.
        A few months ago I was focussed on money & work. That is now starting to feel a bit like arranging the deck chairs on the titanic.
        My sole concern now is what sort of nation our grandchildren grow up in.
        I am going to be busy this weekend.
        I will be back on here Tuesday.
        Everyone have a good weekend.

  3. I’ve not seen anyone draw attention to the fact that Arron Banks has succeeded in his aim of getting rid of Carswell. Why else did he stand down than the threat of a well-funded campaign against him by Banks?

  4. You are falling for the Tories’ tricks. First, consider the long term role of UKIP. The demographics of our country are changing so quickly that in 40 years we will be muslim-majority, and as many non-muslim brits will be older, the momentum will be entirely with the muslims. Does anyone seriously think the tories will do anything to face up to this existential problem?

    Second, Theresa May should be careful. She has called this election to smash her enemies, principally labour, but also UKIP. Since she got elected she has stolen UKIP’s policies and now she will bring all those UKIP voters back into the Tory fold. Her objective is to destroy UKIP, when the need for a party like UKIP could never be greater! And yet I hear so many voices saying be pragmatic. When someone is trying to destroy you, where is the room for pragmatism? The tories are so far ahead of labour now that we don’t need to worry about Brexit not being delivered, except perhaps in a handful of seats where the libdems could get back in. I agree to tactical voting in those seats. But now is the time for us to redefine the party, not let it slide away into the background.

    • Graham, you make two worthwhile points.
      Firstly, I am deeply concerned about the Muslim demographics. We do need a party which will stand up to that, and not give an inch. Unfortunately at the moment UKIP is not that party, because it is pro-Halal. Did you read my article, and see the amount of effort I have made to try to have that policy reversed?

      The Muslim vote is heading towards predominantly Labour. Let them have that vote, and let them spout all the anti-Semitic garbage that they like, and hold as many gender segregated meetings that they want. If UKIP is there with decent values and including zero tolerance of different laws for religions (Sharia laws, Sharia finance, non-stun excessively cruel religious abattoirs), then naturally the decent traditional voters will come to UKIP. In significant numbers. UKIP will win significant numbers of seats I believe, if it genuinely 100% supports decent British values. At the moment being anti-Sharia but pro-Halal makes no logical sense, since the two are at root the same thing.

      Secondly, in a way I do not care which political party sorts out the mess which the country is in. If UKIP can gain some leverage over the Conservatives then it can be achieved indirectly. Politics is the art of the possible, you have to work with what you have got.

      At the moment we have no real option but to work with the Conservatives. If UKIP continues with a belligerence to all attitude then the Conservatives will simply bypass UKIP and take dozens of Labour seats themselves. By working co-cooperatively with the conservatives it will minimise the number of seats taken by the arch-Europhile Lib Dems, and there will also be a respectable number of Labour seats becoming UKIP.

      Have a go on the Electoral Calculus website to gain a feel for the numbers of votes and corresponding seats. It is a helpful indicator of possibilities.

      • Graham and Hugo
        The mainstream parties will not tackle this existential issue – on an acceptable timetable anyway.
        The Tories need to be removed from power ASAP and Labour prevented from getting into power again.
        To save the nation a patriotic populist party needs to win a first past the post election.
        The target should be the next general election after June 8th election.
        UKIP are the best candidates for this task as the party has a structure in place, is well known to the voters, and already has a solid base of support to build on. The new breakaway party to be launched after the election also looks promising.
        I am going to get involved at my local UKIP branch, hustings next week, hope to meet some members and see the manifesto.
        My attitude is ignore the Tories. We need to get as many votes as possible to give UKIP the maximum credibility going forward. No tactical voting.
        Retain as many votes and members as possible until UKIP ready to grow again – once the party has worked through issues over policies, the NEC and leadership, Direct Democracy and getting the grassroots more involved.

        • Maximus, what you are asking for could take decades, and the reality is that we do not have that amount of time.

          The Conservatives are not disappearing any time soon. The best that can be done is to influence them to take a particular path.

          • Without our own power base Hugo we’re not going to have much influence on the Tories. Thay can never be trusted anyway.

          • Hugo
            The curent approach will take decades.
            The stronger UKIP are the more influence UKIP will have.
            I consider an outright win is achievable within 2 elections – we just need to get the right policies in place.
            Our policy should be to make the Tories disappear – or at least no longer capable of winning an election.

        • Maximus, thanks, you give me a small amount of hope that there are fresh energetic can-do people who might join UKIP (Well, you have!) as the huge threat we face from the Islamisation of Britain becomes ever more of a reality. As you say, the structure is in place. However it cannot be emphasized enough that demographics are against us, and there is in reality little time. This is the main thing I have against the current leadership, the refusal to address this, as there are not so many people willing to lead the fight as there are people who are non-political, but desperate for a party to vote for that are voicing their concerns, and a Party offering answers as to how to deal with the threat. And really, it is all very simple, how we deal with it. We have rehearsed these policy ideas many times here, so I won’t go into them, just say, thanks for joining us. Keep in touch!

          • Dee
            The voters are ready – they are just waiting for the right party – they have been waiting too long now.
            The first party to stand up for the silent majority will receive an avalanche of votes.
            I am one of the large number of people who keep saying why doesn’t someone do something. I am no longer waiting for that someone else.
            I have joined UKIP to be an active member and get involved in policy and drive things along locally – until they kick me out for being too radical that is.

        • Well said, Maximus.
          Welcome to the Few. Our country’s destiny depends on UKIP’s efforts now.

    • Demographically, look at Councils/Local Authorities in England where Muslims have taken over – Tower Hamlets, etc.
      Too many people are do not appreciate that Islam and democracy are incompatible.
      Look at what today is happening to Christians in Egypt.

  5. This is an interesting discussion.

    I have been lurking on here for a week or so.
    Clearly there are many kindred spirits in UKIP.
    I am filling in the UKIP application form this evening.

    I do not do tactical voting.
    I always vote for what I want.
    How are you going to get what you want if you don’t vote for it.

    Many on here seem to have issues with the party leadership.
    It seems an inside group of people decide on policy without consulting the membership. Is that correct ?
    From the comments many on here are unhappy with UKIP policies and the direction is party is going. That is seeking to become a respectable uncontroversial party of the centre. Is that correct ?
    Are the comments on here representative of the wider party membership ?

    • UKIP varies tremendously district by district so it depends where you live what the local constituency party is like. It can be anything from two men not on speaking terms to a fully functional operation with lively monthly/fortnightly meetings.
      Good luck Maximus.

    • Maximus, the policy making in the past has not always reflected the wishes of many grassroots members. Hopefully that is changing. Mechanisms were beginning to be put in place for Direct Democracy. Although now of course the timescales are all compressed.

      In the past I have delivered thousands of UKIP leaflets in clearly unwinnable seats. I am not sure that the effort was entirely wasted because although not many votes were obtained, it did lay the groundwork for the referendum campaign.

      Some policy areas must now be revisited. They were put as low priority while the focus was on the referendum. You are seeing two or three years worth of pent up policy suggestions.

      I believe that Stoke was winnable. However not with the well publicised blunders, and not with the wrong policies. Hopefully the lessons will be quickly learned, and the effort will be better focused from now on. With policies which the members actually believe in, such as to put an end to non-stun abattoirs. (It may seem to be a side issue, however it is truly central to working out what democracy actually means. We must have one law for all, at the moment we do not have that in the UK.)

    • Maximus, just off to bed but having read your post, and wanted to reply – speaking for myself I have huge issues with current Party Leadership who decide policy without any reference to members while posing as a Direct Democracy (which we have been promised recently but which has not materialized) Party. It is also divorcing itself from members like me who wanted UKIP to fulfill the title on the tin. Personally agree fully with your second to last sentence. As to others, in true democratic fashion you must ask them, although if you look at recent posts, you might get a rough idea! Best wishes, Dee

    • Thanks for the replies. Hustings next week. Looking forward to that. Hope my branch is one of the lively ones. The Stoke result suggests UKIP needs to do some careful thinking. It is essential for the party to have good communications between the NEC, leadership and the grassroots. To win an election UKIP needs a strong grassroots that is enthusiastic about the policies. I have joined UKIP to get involved in discussing policy, assist in putting in place an efficient effective structure, going out canvassing. I will strongly back Direct Democracy.

  6. If we don’t offer more to working people we won’t be taking anything.

  7. KISS OF DEATH A Roman Noir in the tradition of S Woolf’s KISS TOMORROW GOODBYE
    and D James’ THE ODDS AGAINST TOMORROW and following on from P Nuttall’s NOBODY IS LEADER FOREVER comes S Evans’ thriller about Troytown life in the near future. Evans has done it again following on from her flop first novel of two years ago as what should be a suspense victory turns into a candy coloured article from mythical centreland. Oakden publications £100.

  8. Hello, after spending several months before Brexit vote to blog tweet to support UKIP I cant agree with the above. Today I read and checked UKIP got the 2nd place in 120 election districts electorates in the alst GE in 2015 I do not see a need to help Conservatives may in those areas where UKIP was in 3rd place or 4th place

    a) Each area of say 5-10 constituencies ( depending on active membership) adopt a Labour sitting MP who is a Remainiac as the target. A local candidate is then chosen to stand against him on the platform of Brexit or Bust, no more immigration, all foreign aid to be by voluntary donations of taxpayers, Make Britain Great Again!…or
    b) Each area adopts a tory traitor eg Soubrette (sic) in Broxtowe. Then a Brexit candidate is chosen – it does not have to be a UKIP member and the case is simply one of democracy “we the British people in our unprecedented millions have chosen BREXIT but the tory MP is doing all s/he can to stop this. In the name of democracy vote him/her out.”
    PS Oakden is an absolute liaibility and I speak as someone who has tried to engage with him in rational debate face to face.

      Please please please target Doncaster North where arch traitor EM gloats but is rarely seen. Either support 100% the tory candidate if she is a Brexiteer or fight in the name of England as Donny folk I have found to be good nationalists and put up a local man not afraid of a rough political fight.
      Be outrageous and use the MSM like Trump.

    • CK you have got it in one! Oakden is the cause of most of UKIPs problems – I believe even Nuttall might be better without Oakden calling the shots – look how That’s gone so far!

      • CK I love your message! Bang on! I have a feeling it will work just as well anywhere the liblabs and cons have shut down coal mines and where the expensive energy prices this caused have shut down industry and moved jobs to China etc. so that many a ‘working man’ is now the unemployed man.

  10. If we couldn’t win in Stoke, Hugo, what makes you think we can ever win any other Labour seat? With the same policies? Our only chance is to offer working class voters something they want to hear on the economy and the wealth divide in our country.
    We must not behave like the Tories’ poodle. They are not to be trusted on Brexit or anything else, and are in fact our worst enemies – we have to fight everywhere we can, except against the most reliable Brixiteers of other parties.

    • We couldn’t win Stoke, Q, because we pandered to a minority whose main interests are not those of British people, we had a candidate and his mate who looked like,
      frankly, that would-be toff in The Grass is Greener, who wasn’t local and who hadn’t bothered to check his Farcebook bio. Those were the reasons.

      • No Dee, I agree they were partly the reasons, but to win elections you need much much more.
        We are deluding ourelves if we think otherwise – which is what many on here are doing, regrettably.

          Nuttall snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
          Tranmere Rovers, Hillsborough, UKIP Central, Primary Residence, Squire of The Knotty, halal for all, mosque friendly grovelling.
          What a shambles!! I went through all the editions of the Stoke Sentinel and spoke to the Editor in person to discover that eg only five letters pro UKIP were received and published two from Bill Cash’s son, two from a Bill Cash constituent and one just one from a Stoke UKIP member.
          Who on earth was the Press Officer of the Campaign? Hang your head in shame.

          • Agree all that, CK.
            But the economy? – all we could offer was VAT off fish and chips.
            Got an idea Labour are going to do very well in this election. And it will serve the Tories – and us, unfortunately – right.

          • When you put it all together, all you can do is laugh – or cry for how our Leadership has failed the British people.

      • Dee and Q,

        Ukip did not win in Stoke because they always vote Labour, the white working class there would not have noticed that leaflet as it was not sent to them. The conservatives are faced with the same problem where there are Labour strongholds, they will always vote for them regardless.

        What was more worrying about Stoke in my view was that we were only approx 100 votes ahead of the conservatives, and they ran a very lack lustre campaign, so there is something very wrong with Ukip’s policies or it was just down to them disliking Paul Nuttall, or both of course.

  11. 100% right Viv and a lot of people on the Surrey Committee would agree. But will Nuttall & Co get it?

    • I’m beginning to have my doubts. see the comment by Stout Yeoman: that lot is more interested in getting elected to Parliament than representing what UKIP and we, the members, stand for.

  12. Hugo, we probably cannot afford to do anything different. However, we must, I believe, remember that Mrs May has no intention of delivering Brexit as we would want it – remember she said she intended to deliver a Brexit for ‘the whole country, not just the 52% – there are proper Brexit Tories, but not very many.
    What we really can aim for is VOTES, not seats – enough votes to put the frightened son May, and with luck, a seat or two as well.
    That means sticking to Vic’s clear and simple message, outlined in her article today.
    Fat chance!

  13. Totally agree – straightforward and pragmatic. UKIP’s limited role is to protect Brexit and prevent backsliding.

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